Civilisation Watch: Global Event Linkages on 7 September 2026
The motivation for this work is simple: I wanted to explore a subject I care about through an interactive visualisation with a playful and educational dimension. It is not a forecasting system, and it does not treat events that coincide or interact as proof of causation.
How was it made?
The investigation had two stages. The first was fact-checking: 12 Agents each examined one of 12 events, beginning with official material from organisations such as WHO, WMO, FAO, and the UN. Reports from major news agencies such as Reuters were then used for cross-checking, with secondary reporting considered only afterwards.
The second stage was linkage analysis: another 8 Agents looked for transmission paths between the events from the perspectives of energy, food, logistics, climate, humanitarian aid, public health, diplomacy, and AI governance.
During synthesis, information was separated into three layers: records supported by sources, inferences drawn from established facts, and speculation for claims with insufficient evidence. A simple counterfactual test was also applied to links that appeared causal: if event A had not happened, would event B still have occurred in roughly the same way? If the answer remained “yes”, A was more likely an amplifying factor than a primary cause.
The analysis also distinguishes between immediate, seasonal, and multi-year time scales, so that a price shock lasting weeks is not folded into the same causal chain as infrastructure change unfolding over years.
The interactive work below is currently presented in Chinese. Its evidence labels and time scales are essential to reading it: this is a dated investigative snapshot, not a definitive prediction of the future.